UPDATE: Russian cbank improves 2015 GDP fall forecast to 3.7–3.9%

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MOSCOW, Dec 11 (PRIME) -- The Russian central bank has improved its forecast for the gross domestic product (GDP) contraction in 2015 to 3.7–3.9% from 3.9–4.4%, Chairwoman Elvira Nabiullina said at a news conference Friday.

The sharp phase of an economic slowdown is over, but it is early yet to speak about a stable positive trend, she said.

“In our point of view, we can speak about the sharp phase of an economic slowdown being over. In the third quarter, the GDP year-on-year contraction was not that strong as in the second quarter,” Nabiullina said.

Russia’s inflation will be close to the upper border of 13% in 2015 and is likely to slow down to 7.5–8% in January–March 2016 mostly due to a base effect, she said.

The central bank’s basic scenario implies an oil price of around U.S. $50 per barrel over the next three years, but the probability of oil prices remaining below that level has increased, Nabiullina also said.

With the implementation of the risky scenario, implying oil prices at $40 per barrel, Russia’s GDP may fall around 2–3% in 2016, Nabiullina also said.

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